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Prediction for CME (2022-08-17T14:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-17T14:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21245/-1
CME Note: An eruption likely associated with an M2.0-class flare from AR3078. The eruption is seen in SDO 171/193/304 as a brightening with associated opening field lines and ejecta that diverge and deflect partially to the south and partially to the west, likely due to the presence of a coronal hole. The CME was observed to be bright and fairly wide in running difference imagery. Slowly-varying magnetic component rotations were observed to start around 2022-08-20T09:16Z with a potential arrival around 2022-08-20T04:53Z due to the presence of a sharp but weak increase in solar wind density and temperature, but the solar wind data is rather inconclusive of showing a clear interplanetary shock. With an IPS (beginning of an ICME sheath signature) occurring around 2022-08-20T16:00Z, it is possible that there is a complex signature with more than one ICME arrival occurring between 2022-08-20 and 2022-08-21.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-20T04:23Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-08-17 19:26
 - Time at C2: 2022-08-17 14:53
 - Radial speed: 767.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 49 deg
 - Eruption location: S26W18
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 636.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-08-20 04:23 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.52 hours)
Lead Time: 58.05 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-08-17T18:20Z
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